Minnesota’s record looks impressive, but the Vikings have sacked weak defenses and that’s not what they face on Sunday. See why the commanders will put up a fight with our Week 9 NFL picks.
The Washington Commanders (4-4) reversed their luck and won three games in a row, the last two with Taylor Heinecke under center and three points combined against the Packers and Colts.
They return home in Week 9 to take on the Minnesota Vikings (6-1), who are winning six straight after their 34-26 win over the Cardinals. The Vikings caused a stir at the trading deadline earlier this week, adding former eighth overall winner TJ Hockenson.
Will the Vikings and their new toy bring their seventh straight W to the board at the end of this week? Find out in our Vikings vs. Commanders NFL tips and predictions for Sunday, November 6th.
Vikings vs Commanders best odds
Vikings vs Commanders tips and predictions
Just three weeks ago, the season of commanders seemed to be over. With a 1-4 record while the Eagles, Giants and Cowboys combined just two losses, there was a justifiable lack of optimism.
But things took a turn for the better in Week 6 at Thursday Night Football after an ugly 12-7 win over the Bears. Head coach Ron Rivera was spared a difficult decision that he was likely to make sooner rather than later as Carson Wentz sustained an injury that would sideline him and force Taylor Heinecke into the starting role.
The Commanders may only have scored 40 points in the two weeks since, but they’ve been a quality collection of points. Heinecke has rightly paid more attention to Terry McLaurin, with the recently extended wideout amassing 186 yards in those two games after averaging just 367 yards in the previous six games.
Antonio Gibson has also shown new life. The former Memphis hybrid offensive weapon averaged 4.6 yards per carry in the last two games after just 3.5 before that and had a touchdown in each of those games — his first two touchdowns of the season.
This well-rounded offensive approach, utilizing his most dangerous and dynamic playmakers, is exactly the type that can abuse a 21st-rank Vikings defense, according to the DVOA. The same defense has also conceded 22 or more points in four of their last five games, but the offense has easily topped that score during that five-game winning streak.
But this offense could struggle against a Commanders defense that has been turning the tide of late. It kept the fast-improving Justin Fields at seven points, the Packers offense at 14 points, and the Colts at 16.
The Commanders have had the juice lately, and catching a field goal at home is just a little too much.
my best bet: Commanders +3 (+100 at DraftKings)
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Vikings vs Commanders spread analysis
The likelihood of an offensive fight on behalf of the Vikings also becomes more likely when examining the defenses they have played so far. Minnesota’s offense had the third-easiest defensive plan, according to Football Outsiders.
So while many have praised Kevin O’Connell for orchestrating an offense averaging 24.7 points per game (good for ninth place), there’s certainly more to it than meets the eye. It’s also quite devastating that the Vikings coaching staff didn’t find a way to get Justin Jefferson into the end zone as the star has not scored a touchdown since Week 1 in his third year.
The addition of TJ Hockenson at the close might generate some excitement, but the reality is that up until this point in his career, Hockenson has been mostly a massive disappointment given his draft pedigree (eighth overall pick in 2019) and the majority of the few flashes he’s had throughout while he was with the Lions came out of occasional necessity (extensive skill-position player injuries) rather than any merit of his own talent. And a short week of acclimatization and preparation will likely make it a marginal impact.
The magic number of a field goal also puts the Commanders in a favorable position against the spread: home underdogs of a field goal or more are 19-10-1 (65.5%) against the spread in 2022.
Vikings vs Commanders Over/Under Analysis
The total of 43.5 for this NFC matchup is modest for the 2022 season. Neither team has played exceptionally well this year, with the Vikings going 4-3 going over and the Commanders going 5-3 the opposite way.
As mentioned, Commanders have been a lot better defensively lately. As a result (and with the help of some clumsy Wentz performances earlier in the season), Washington has now fallen below the total in five of their last six.
If we expect Washington to cap the Vikings’ already inflated offensive performance, and if we assume that Heinecke’s version of that offensive will still be efficient but lack hit explosiveness, then the under is the way to go.
Vikings vs Commanders Betting Trend You Should Know
Home underdogs with a field goal or more are 19-10-1 (65.5%) on the spread in 2022. Find more Vikings vs Commanders NFL betting trends.
Information about the game Vikings vs Commanders
|Location:||FedEx Field, Landover, MD|
|Date:||Sunday 6 November 2022|
|Kicking off:||1:00 p.m. ET|
|Opening Odds:||Commanders +3.5, 43.5 O/U|
Vikings vs Commanders Recent Injuries
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