Old rivals will collide on Sunday as Indianapolis seeks an away win against New England. Read more to see why running back Deon Jackson will be a key component of Indy’s offense in our Colts vs. Patriots betting tips.
The Indianapolis Colts travel to Foxborough in Week 9 to take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.
The Colts are looking to bounce back from two straight losses. Meanwhile, New England is hoping to build up a big division win against the Jets this past weekend.
Which team will prevail on Sunday night? Find out in our free NFL tips and predictions for Colts vs. Patriots on November 6th.
Colts vs Patriots best odds
Colts vs. Patriots tips and predictions
It’s been a rough ride for Indianapolis in 2022. Not only has Matt Ryan’s era ended prematurely, but star running back Jonathan Taylor and All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard have also been slammed all season.
With Taylor officially ruled out and backup RB Nyheim Hines being dealt to the Bills earlier this week, Indy will rely on Deon Jackson in the backfield on Sunday.
Sam Ehlinger was fine on his debut last week, completing 17 of 23 passes for 201 yards with no turnovers. It will be difficult for Ehlinger to do better on Sunday against a New England side whose secondary star defensively supports Jack Jones. The rookie leads all corners with a score of 87.4 on Pro Football Focus, and Jonathan Jones is 14th with a 76.9.
The Colts have been a run-heavy team since Andrew Luck retired and will remain so on Sunday to relieve Ehlinger. The Patriots are among the top 10 teams defending the run, averaging 126 yards per game.
In the two games Jackson started for the Colts, the undrafted Duke product has surpassed 81.5 rushing and receiving yards combined both times.
Head coach Frank Reich’s playcalling for Ehlinger will be pretty trite against a defensive wizard like Bill Belichick. Make sure Jackson’s number is called early and often, both on the ground and on short air passes.
my best bet: Deon Jackson Over 76.5 rushing and receiving yards (-120)
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Colts vs Patriots spread analysis
The Patriots opened as -6 favorites before that week 9 tilt. The Colts haven’t won a game at Foxborough since 2006, and their last five games as a road team against New England have all been losses by at least 14+ points.
To be fair, this is Indianapolis’ first trip to Massachusetts since Tom Brady left the Pats. Indy also prevailed at home against New England last year, forcing Mac Jones to throw two interceptions in a 27-17 Week 15 win at Lucas Oil Stadium.
While Mac Jones is tough to bet on, he doesn’t have much to do against a Colts team that is averaging just 16.1 points per game on Sunday. Six points is a few too many for me to put on the pats. Instead, I would consider taking the Patriots’ money line or spread in the first half.
Indianapolis is notorious for starting games slowly and has yet to hold a lead at halftime. The Colts also trailed all eight of their games in the fourth quarter of this season.
Colts vs. Patriots Over/Under Analysis
This game will be virtually unwatchable if you like offense and I expect most of the points will come from Michael Badgley and Nick Folk’s legs. The Under is 7-0 in the Colts’ last seven away games and 5-2 in the Patriots’ last seven games in November.
No offensive player is capable of making big plays, and even being successful offensively would mean slow, methodical drives that take a lot of time off the clock. Ehlinger and Jones are a bettor’s dream when it comes to the Unders, and the Colts’ last two games have both fallen below Sunday’s 40 total.
Even though this matchup has the lowest O/U of week 9, I’m inclined to take it. The Under has made money in seven of Indy’s eight games this year, while New England sits 4-4.
Colts vs Patriots betting trend you should know
The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four New England encounters. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Patriots.
Colts vs Patriots game information
|Location:||Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA|
|Date:||Sunday 6 November 2022|
|Kicking off:||1:00 p.m. ET|
|Opening Odds:||Patriots -6, 39.5|
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