With 62 days remaining until spring training and just under 100 days until opening day 2023, the Toronto Blue Jays continue to radically change their roster this offseason, trading left starting player Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catcher Gabriel Moreno for the Arizona Diamondbacks in one Blockbuster deal for 26-year-old left-handed outfielder/catcher Daulton Varsho.
BREAKING: The Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks have agreed on a trade that will send outfielder Daulton Varsho to the Blue Jays for a package that includes top catcher Gabriel Moreno, sources tell ESPN .
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 23, 2022
Could this be a similar move to then-General Manager Pat Gillick’s trade for OF Devon White in December 1990, who won five Gold Gloves and two World Series Championships as a Blue Jay?
The move continues the clear pattern this offseason of improving the Blue Jays’ run prevention ability — at the expense of offense. Right fielder Teoscar Hernández (2.8 bWAR in 2022 with an OPS+ of 127, BABIP .335 and wRC+ of 129) traded to Seattle last month for reliever Erik Swanson, the swing and miss of just 70 strikeouts 53.2 innings were played in 2022. He hit 34% of batters this season (11.7/9 innings) versus the MLB average of just 22.1% and walked just 4.9% of the batters he faced with a tiny 1.68 ERA .
Free agent Chris Bassitt was signed as the No. 3 starter in the rotation. He leads the way in making weak contact, with an average exit speed off the opponent’s stick of just 85.7 mph – good for the 95th percentile in MLB – and a hard hit percentage of just 32.8% over that MLB average of 35.8%. While his ERA and FIP were higher in 2022 than the starter he replaces in the Jays’ rotation, Ross Stripling (3.01, 3.11), at 3.42 and 3.66, respectively, he’s also been more consistent since 2020 pitching an average of 5.9 innings per start across 68 starts and averaging 6.1 innings across his 30 starts in 2022; Strip averaged just over 5 innings per start this year and has averaged 4.8 innings/start over 45 starts as a Blue Jay since 2020.
Free agent center fielder Kevin Kiermaier (2022 bWAR 1.1, OPS+ 89, BABIP .290, wRC+ 90) received a one-year, $9 million deal to bring his thrice Gold Glove-winning platinum glove to Toronto. He’ll likely corner George Springer in the outfield, which will mean an improvement over Hernández and Gurriel on the defensive end.
Hernández had -3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2022 and a cumulative value of -8 since 2020. He was a -5 in 2022 in Outs Above Average (OAA). Gurriel posted a +3 DRS over 896.2 innings played LF this year, up from +6 last season. Springer has a -5 cumulative DRS for Toronto in CF since 2021, but has a +12 cumulative DRS in RF since his 2014 rookie season. He will likely be moved to an outfield corner more often in 2023 to ease wear and tears on his joints, allowing Kiermaier to patrol center where he has a cumulative DRS of +134 since his rookie year in 2014, including +25 since 2020. Since 2016 he is good for an overall OAA of +71.
And now the Jays OF/C have acquired Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks, further bolstering outfield defense. Varsho, who was a finalist for the NL Gold Glove in RF, ranked second among MLB outfielders this season with a +19 DRS, including +14 in 541.2 innings played in RF (OAA +10) and + 5 in 378.2 innings played in CF (OAA +8). His +18 OAA led all MLB outfielders. He also fills a big need in the hitter lineup with his left-handedness and was good for a 4.9 bWAR in 2022, with an OPS+ of 109, BABIP of .269 and wRC+ of 106 with 27 homers in a much weaker Arizona lineup. He should benefit from better protection in the Jays’ batting lineup, replacing Gurriel’s 2.2 bWAR, OPS+ 113, BABIP .346, and wRC+ of 114.
By deducting the remainder of the year and $5.8 million of the Gurriel contract, from which the $3.1 million AAV is credited against the luxury tax payslip, RosterResource brings the updated luxury tax payslip to Blue Jays just above the $233 million CBT threshold. Varsho qualified for Super Two status this offseason with his 2,128 years of MLB service, which qualifies him for arbitration this offseason even though he hasn’t accumulated three years of service yet. According to RosterResource, he is expected to earn $2.8 million in 2023.
Among teams in AL East, the Blue Jays trail only behind the NY Yankees’ estimated CBT payroll of $292 million. The Jays’ front office arguably did exactly what they promised at the start of the offseason by focusing on run prevention and pitching, as well as improving the balance in the Blue Jays’ batting lineup. But adding Gurriel to Varsho’s trade could be construed as a luxury tax-driven move?
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